Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 10.789115 12.663757 14.719306 17.134050 19.886279 22.918484 26.504812
2025-01-19 8.076365 10.532334 13.470401 17.217733 21.840933 27.326851 34.294845
2025-01-26 6.730693 9.574892 13.227604 18.201973 24.730018 32.928025 43.912685
2025-02-02 5.711630 8.766222 12.936864 18.940929 27.236069 38.148304 53.414807
2025-02-09 4.987642 8.189260 12.802399 19.770460 29.828859 43.587538 63.539389
2025-02-16 4.202772 7.364981 12.161940 19.743426 31.142677 47.305103 71.520028
2025-02-23 3.452568 6.452054 11.236878 19.136816 31.484981 49.594347 77.564481
2025-03-02 2.824167 5.621675 10.308022 18.376653 31.461358 51.268919 82.740069
2025-03-09 2.449642 5.161233 9.906142 18.382933 32.577463 54.660888 90.608389
2025-03-16 2.147475 4.778404 9.577393 18.454225 33.769761 58.207403 98.881645
2025-03-23 1.876088 4.406028 9.212576 18.408464 34.736895 61.426314 106.793775
2025-03-30 1.579072 3.927824 8.586058 17.817711 34.703982 62.996287 112.131862
2025-04-06 1.385616 3.639881 8.295172 17.828564 35.751278 66.467539 120.864570
2025-04-13 1.213775 3.368120 7.999831 17.796565 36.714194 69.855223 129.661809
2025-04-20 1.153470 3.345007 8.210433 18.767861 39.587064 76.688752 144.627199
2025-04-27 1.078691 3.272793 8.305786 19.512310 42.081944 82.995261 159.006977
2025-05-04 1.018027 3.224916 8.446510 20.358499 44.825498 89.886842 174.734716
2025-05-11 0.903040 3.011334 8.185420 20.329090 45.848917 93.718346 185.254837
2025-05-18 0.766944 2.709830 7.676729 19.706280 45.628891 95.235402 191.695085
2025-05-25 0.642116 2.410626 7.127463 18.926249 45.010232 95.945492 196.672709
2025-06-01 0.573126 2.263817 6.934593 18.932633 46.016696 99.780015 207.557144
2025-06-08 0.515078 2.138270 6.778272 19.005755 47.163974 103.938395 219.228006
2025-06-15 0.458764 2.004822 6.581432 18.958800 48.041425 107.604608 230.124789